Sorry I haven't been around much to update people, but I actually went and helped out in the effort for a few days while I had some business to attend to.
Latest word is that things are going EXACTLY the way I said they would months ago. People laughed at me when I said not to worry, now who is laughing? There are 4 factions out there and even more juicy the factions all have no interest in losing to each other. What this has evolved into is Oxley against the world. Very few outside of the Kyl/Goodlatte/Leach camp want the Oxley version to pass. Sensenbrenner is not going to let that bill pass, that was what someone said to one of the key lobbyists so I would just about write it off in its current version. The Conyers camp realizes that their approach of studying the industry won't work hand in hand with a ban so Conyers has astutely jumped to the camp of Cannon, the one who proposes an outright bet ban on anything and everything. Cannon and Conyers, while talking one way are really walking the other. They want a regulated business, one that feel can legitimately keep out "illegal" betting while getting taxes from most every state. Their approach is push this outright ban because its impossible for it to win. There are some that truly want this so they are on board. So here is the scenario, you got Oxley's bill which is almost certain not to win. You have the Sensenbrenner approach which is Oxley plus criminal enforcement, which can't go because then its jurisdiction makes the Cannon amendment go into effect. Then you have the approach that Cannon and his crowd just flat out put their amendment on during debate on the House floor.
Confused? Well most are, but put simply it looks very very good, maybe 98% likely that nothing happens. The camps have no middle ground, Oxley's bill is actually the closest thing to a middle ground because its basically a nothing bill, doesn't add anything to what is effectively there with the banks own ban. However, that version is running into too much key opposition so therefore its all a big mess.
About the proposals to write your senator and representatives. I talked to a few people, including a member of the House I won't reveal, and they say that the problem with those is that they get a handful from constituents, but those don't add up to the clout of just two or three priests or doctors at GA clinics who encourage them for the ban. Bottom line is that Joe Blow the bettor doesn't mean much to them compared to a man of the cloth or a doctor with a bunch of certifications. Sad but true. Also at least half the reps will scoff at the letters because they think the supporters are a bunch of lawbreakers anyways. The best way to write is to talk about it in broad terms, not a "protect my right to do this", but talk about invasion of privacy or issues like that.
Bottom line is that this bill probably dies because in the end, it means almost nothing but a symbolic victory for those that pass. Its obviously not something that cries out for action so that in the end probably will just get it buried like all past years. The key will be for the NASAs of the world to simply put keep your F*****G MOUTHS SHUT!!! Press releases by offshore books are incredibly harmful. We can't make this point clear enough! Don't say a word, don't tell the world how many bets your took or how much money you make, keep that info to yourself. The few publicly traded companies have no choice, but notice they are very quiet about what they say and talk about "worldwide customers" and don't point out how much action they get on a particular American event. Any book that flaunts themselves gets noticed, this stuff gets collected for future use and has been circulated by the Leach staff. So I ask Shrink and all the people here to pass that word along, that no news is the lobby's approach from here on out. Silence is golden.
Latest word is that things are going EXACTLY the way I said they would months ago. People laughed at me when I said not to worry, now who is laughing? There are 4 factions out there and even more juicy the factions all have no interest in losing to each other. What this has evolved into is Oxley against the world. Very few outside of the Kyl/Goodlatte/Leach camp want the Oxley version to pass. Sensenbrenner is not going to let that bill pass, that was what someone said to one of the key lobbyists so I would just about write it off in its current version. The Conyers camp realizes that their approach of studying the industry won't work hand in hand with a ban so Conyers has astutely jumped to the camp of Cannon, the one who proposes an outright bet ban on anything and everything. Cannon and Conyers, while talking one way are really walking the other. They want a regulated business, one that feel can legitimately keep out "illegal" betting while getting taxes from most every state. Their approach is push this outright ban because its impossible for it to win. There are some that truly want this so they are on board. So here is the scenario, you got Oxley's bill which is almost certain not to win. You have the Sensenbrenner approach which is Oxley plus criminal enforcement, which can't go because then its jurisdiction makes the Cannon amendment go into effect. Then you have the approach that Cannon and his crowd just flat out put their amendment on during debate on the House floor.
Confused? Well most are, but put simply it looks very very good, maybe 98% likely that nothing happens. The camps have no middle ground, Oxley's bill is actually the closest thing to a middle ground because its basically a nothing bill, doesn't add anything to what is effectively there with the banks own ban. However, that version is running into too much key opposition so therefore its all a big mess.
About the proposals to write your senator and representatives. I talked to a few people, including a member of the House I won't reveal, and they say that the problem with those is that they get a handful from constituents, but those don't add up to the clout of just two or three priests or doctors at GA clinics who encourage them for the ban. Bottom line is that Joe Blow the bettor doesn't mean much to them compared to a man of the cloth or a doctor with a bunch of certifications. Sad but true. Also at least half the reps will scoff at the letters because they think the supporters are a bunch of lawbreakers anyways. The best way to write is to talk about it in broad terms, not a "protect my right to do this", but talk about invasion of privacy or issues like that.
Bottom line is that this bill probably dies because in the end, it means almost nothing but a symbolic victory for those that pass. Its obviously not something that cries out for action so that in the end probably will just get it buried like all past years. The key will be for the NASAs of the world to simply put keep your F*****G MOUTHS SHUT!!! Press releases by offshore books are incredibly harmful. We can't make this point clear enough! Don't say a word, don't tell the world how many bets your took or how much money you make, keep that info to yourself. The few publicly traded companies have no choice, but notice they are very quiet about what they say and talk about "worldwide customers" and don't point out how much action they get on a particular American event. Any book that flaunts themselves gets noticed, this stuff gets collected for future use and has been circulated by the Leach staff. So I ask Shrink and all the people here to pass that word along, that no news is the lobby's approach from here on out. Silence is golden.
